There are also some comments being made here and there about the market being the most difficult to trade in recent history, I have to agree to a point, but the market has always had the same look to it. The patterns are the same, optimism and pessimism is always the same at extremes in value. There was a comment made in an interview I was listening to a week or two ago about how you can’t go by the indexes you have to be selective with your stock purchases…it was the same envrioment back in the late 90′s prior to the dot com bust.

There is one person who I agree with and that is Richard Russell. I was reading an article at King World News that Richard Russell wrote and he says that “We Are Witnessing Unprecedented Events”. He writes “did you know the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 21 of the last 25 weeks”? “margin debt is at a near record high”, “never before has there been so little cash in money market funds relative to stocks and bonds”. You need to read the article

The Dow Jones Industrials is showing extremes on the upside with decreasing volume. The S&P 500 is the same…price going up and the volume going down. For me…I’m trading the market the same, a small percentage of my portfolio trading short term opportunities. The gold stocks on the other hand are seriously oversold, I don’t have a chart for that today but the sellers are coming to a close.

My last pivot point date was the first week in May and the price of the indexes did a breakout. There is a pivot point due May 20th/22nd with another pivot point due the first week in June. When you read Richard Russell and his feelings about the Dow Jones Industrials…it’s more than just an article it’s many years of experience telling you the reader that things aren’t RIGHT.

www.stockcharts.com

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www.stockcharts.com

Ray Kurzweil is a futurist who does presentations on the laws of accelerating returns, a theme that revolves around the fact that information technologies grow exponentially and doubles in a period of time. Right now Kurzweil says that information technologies are doubling in about a year, a couple of years ago information technologies were doubling about every 2 years. Kurzweil  has also been talking abut the Singularity…if you haven’t been keeping track of Kurzweil… the Singularity is the period of time when machines and humans merge…that’s right…merge…you see where I’m going with this. A couple of months ago I watched a presentation where Kurzweil was talking about a Nanobot that was built and mimicked a white blood cell. The Nanobot over a period of a couple of hours engulfed and destroyed a virus that was also present in the blood as the team watched it under a microscope…wow. I could write about this all day but if your as interested about the next big thing as I am…then you need to watch this video click here… http://tagtvonline.com/tag-events/2013-georgia-technology-summit/viewvideo/572/2013-gts/ray-kurzweil-featured-speaker. As far as know this is the most recent presentation Kurzweil has done, his presentations are somewhat similar with slight variations but I still have a fascination with what he says. Your probably wondering…what does this all have to do with investing? answer Lots! Just Imagine if you would have known the trend before it even started or participated in a start up company like Microsoft or Google when their balance sheet wasn’t even conceived yet. These trends don’t happen over night, they transform over a decade or so, maybe sooner now since information technologies grow exponentially according to Ray Kurzweil and his presentations. You need to watch the video above to get a sense of what’s to come and I do admit it is somewhat scary in a way but just imagine if someone from 150 years ago rose from their grave, they’d be terrified. A good example of a start up company that is going to compete with Google Glass and might be the only wearable computing device  available before Googles launch is a company called Telepathy with a device called Telepathy 1. The Tokyo based creator Takahito Iguchi uses an optically projected screen from a projector above the eye rather than glasses which I’m guessing is something similar to what Ray Kurzweil was talking about during his presentation in Georgia…during part of the recent  presentation Kurzweil was talking about an image being projected onto the retina of the eye. Telepathy competing with a gorilla like Google could be and probably is futile but the message I’m trying to relay is the TREND that is feeding on itself…one thing leads to another and new ideas emerge over and over again. There are a  couple of variations of interactive glasses emerging from other companies so as always it’s a crap-shoot when it comes time to choosing a future billion dollar company.

So…how do you choose the next billion dollar company from a simple start up? good question. Well for starters…all of the billion dollar companies that were started out of the garage or dorm with only a few buck were started by CEO’s who had similar characteristics. Just think about it for a minute…some names that come to the top of my head: Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Micheal Dell, Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page, May Kay, Howard Schultz, Ken Langone, Larry Ellison, and the list goes on. These people all have something in common, they have DRIVE and they’re SMART. When you combine these 2 characteristics with the right timing of a trend you have a winner.

So what’s the next big trend? For the last couple of years I’ve been reading about and watching presentations about the BIOTECH industry. You can disagree with me if you want, that’s your right, I personally think that the next big thing is going to be biotech merged with electronics in the same way as the dot com era was in the nineties. I personally think that we are at the same stage right now as computer technology was back in the 1980′s, so this trend is in it’s infancy. It’s my opinion too that interactive glasses are the canary in the coal mine  for this revolution, interactive glasses are only the beginning. I know it sounds too creepy but imagine what life is going to be like totally tapped in to everyone all of the time, just thinking about makes me want to live beside the lake in the middle of no where away from it all and yet at the same time it sounds exciting…we’ll have to see.

Back to Google Glass, the release won’t be out for a year or so but Google introduced a beta version and made it available to testers that were selected for certain reasons. Apparently there was an audition on Twitter or Google+, then if you were selected you paid $1500.oo to be one of the first people to wear this new upcoming fashion accessory. Lord only knows where this is going to lead to EXACTLY, but this is only the start and if you watch any of  the Kurzweil presentations…you’ll get a grasp of where we could potentially go with the broad trend.

So let’s look at a chart of Google, I don’t have too much say about it other than it’s possibly in a C wave right now going into possibly the 5th wave of the C wave. With that being said there could be more to go but on May 2nd, 2013 a bunch of cycles are lining up, long term and short term…are we going to see a major break down or is the market going to give us another break out to new highs. I did notice that market sentiment is bearish here at the top, that’s weird…market breadth based on my momentum indicators is somewhat low but not in scary territory meaning buy. The way things are shaping up, the upside seems to be limited for the time being, perhaps in a month or so June 7th, 2013 is the date for a pivot point so possibly that could be a time to go long again till the Fall Season, in the mean time you dream about the new fashion accessory…Google Glass.

As with anything there is always a negative side. The thing that the Gold Bugs Index has against it is the fact that the price has gone below the upward channel shown below with red lines. That in of itself isn’t necessarily a really bad negative because the index could go up again in a sideways fashion to the 650 level  or 400 level only to come back down again…time will tell…we’re only concerned about NOW. The second negative thing is the fact that that the price could go down to the 230 level which is support if you would draw a line from the 2000 lows to the 2008 low and beyond. At that level, there should be some pretty strong hands. There one other negative and that’s the gold price itself. The price of Gold has gone below the 200 week moving average so that’s pretty scary and yet not. It did the same thing back in the 1970′s only to go up multiple times after that. The biggest negative for the gold stocks is the fact that the stock market in general is rolling over and time for a long needed washout. The gold miners are just that stocks will do what the rest of the stock market does but not always. There were times in the past when the gold miners went in the opposite direction.

I myself, I was early buying my stock which is a venture capital company in resources mostly gold and silver but at the same time I don’t bet the farm on anything and I’am trading it based on the weekly / monthly chart. There is one thing though I should have waited till the pivot point date which is the first week in May. The exact date for the Gold Bugs Index is April 29th. There is one thing on my side though, I’am quite confident the trade will work out as long as I don’t get greedy, if you own a gold stock now is not the time to sell. So from a swing trading point of view the gold sector or Gold Bugs Index is volatile beyond belief and not meant for the queezy or weak stomachs…REMEMBER THE NEXT PIVOT POINT DATE FOR THE…HUI…IS APRIL 29TH.

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