The most important word to Swing Trading, or investing in general is DISCIPLINE. Without it, you are going to lose, plain and simple. If you have good discipline, nothing is going to be guaranteed, but if you as an investor or swing trader are able to be a good probability player, you will be right much more than you are wrong. Life is all about probabilities when your making decisions both small and large. Swing Trading is no different.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute is the “world’s leading authority on business cycles” whose “state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points. WATCH IT
I haven’t made a trade since the 3rd week in January. I like to play the the Russell 2000, I was on the wrong side of the market and got out. I mentioned it before, I’ll say it again, I don’t make a trade unless there is high probability of a nice move one way or the other, up or down, that’s my style. Every successful trader out there has their own style with a system and they are disciplined, that’s what makes them successful.
The above 1 minute chart shows TNA with a beautiful setup. I didn’t trade it because I don’t day trade, I found from personal experience I don’t have the discipline to trade in and out of positions all day long. I found out that I was better off waiting for setups like this on the daily chart and combining the patterns with my Swing Trading Forecast Model, ride it and walk away, not worrying about it. This chart shows you that the market is fractal, the charts look the same no matter the time frame.
The chart above shows TNA in the 1 minute chart for the day February 24th. I have to warn you, don’t pay any attention to the wave counts, everybody interprets the counts differently and I have to admit that the count doesn’t look right, RULE: if it doesn’t look right, your probably wrong. When you look at this chart you can see the power to the upside, bullish. You can also see at the end of the day that it was powerful to the downside, bearish. I said it before, I don’t think the markets are going to go up or down, big for the year, I think they are going to go side ways with big volatility only to mix everyone up and get everyone frustrated. However I could be wrong on that one, that’s just the way things seem to be setting up right now.
In the chart above you can see the possible flag forming in TZA and that means the market could take a short term hit early on in the morning. If the flag fails look for an amazing week till March 5th or so, the next pivot point. I should add that the March 5th, March 15th to 21, pivot points might not be the big pivot points I would like to see. According to my Swing Trading Forecast Model the big pivot point around the corner seems to be around April 9th. We’ll have to see what the patterns are like around those dates. It is quite probable that the Russell 2000 could pop until April 9th. If that happens look for a nice drop after the pop.
The chart above is a 4 hour Russell 2000. You can’t see it too well in the chart but the Russell 2000 has been in consolidation mode since February 3rd lagging the income stocks from the DOW that everyone craves so much.
Going off the topic for a second. I like to talk to everyone that I see and don’t even know who they are, the only reason for this is to see what the man or woman on the street is thinking. I walk into a business, ask the owner how business is and take it from there. We then talk about the economy and then the stock market. Everyone now is talking income, moving there money into income stocks. There is nothing bad about that, but you can pay too much for quality as well. It just seems to remind me of all the other bubbles from the past. I should add that bubbles can go on for a while too, I’am not saying a bubble is going to pop tomorrow, but it is in the back of my mind.
Anyway, it is quite possible that the march 5th pivot point is a break out to the upside escaping the now 3 week or so consolidation.
We’ll have to wait and see.
As a final note I recommend all new readers Subscribe for the free email that I offer so that you can stay up to date with the new and surprise articles that I write. It’s one thing to be patient and disciplined but when opportunity knocks action is required.