The Dates are calculated for the 2013 pivot points leading into 2014. Below are some charts that indicate some probabilities for the index’s reaching the targets. Remember…as the year goes on… the pivot points are tweaked a bit. Just like long range shooting, the further you reach out the more difficult it is to capture each pivot point. February 19th is still the next pivot point on the weekly scale, we should see a pull back on the daily scale before going the intermediate high the week after Presidents Day.
Below is a chart of the EUR-USD. note the upper resistance line (red) and the Andrews Pitchfork (green). In the past I’ve timed the markets with high probability in conjunction with my Swing Trading Forecast model. The target’s a long distance shot but as you will see later in the Dow Jones chart and the S & P 500 chart there’s a good pattern evolving. I know it’s not the end of the week yet to show weekly charts but for this article, it doesn’t really matter.
You should note…that ”IF” the price goes to 1.43-1.44 it’s not going to be a straight line. We could see the USD weaken so the red resistance line is tagged long before the end of the year, maybe not. However, the charts below all line up indicating money flow into equities this year. I should also have a chart of the bond market, maybe some other time. The bond market is seriously over valued.
The chart below is of the Dow Jones… notice how the timing is about same leading into the end of the year. In my previous post with the 100 year chart of the Dow, the orange line is the upper resistance for the expanding triangle.
The chart below is of the S&P 500 and the time line is the same as well as the price prior to the end of the year.
The next chart is of the HUI index. It looks like it needs to consolidate or go lower. Hard to say what it might do. It might be February when gold moves higher as well as the gold stocks. I didn’t take any chances with the gold stocks, I managed to leave loosing the commission yesterday. I don’t like the way gold and the gold stocks are performing at this low, however, it’s not the end of the week so really…anything can happen.
Gold is even worse today as I write this article
Silver isn’t looking so good either…
So…in a nutshell…depending on January turns out, we could see a pretty good 2013 with big time optimism leading into 2014. My previous article about the end diagonal or 5 wave wedge might end up not playing out the way it should…reason…everyone sees it. I noticed that the searches on the search engines for those keywords are increasing so therefore if all the technicians in the world see the same pattern…it doesn’t play out.
For me…I’m not taking long term positions at this juncture, just doing a hit here and there and staying in shape (technical wise) trading currencies. If you can trade currencies and count the waves, you can trade anything. My leader list is dwindling going into March so it’s time just to manage the risk with a quick hit here and there on the hourly chart.
The above chart is of a beautiful Triangle Chart Pattern “the power of the triangle”. I stalked it for a while with 2 failed attempts and then stung it proper…as Jesse Livermore would have said. It’s worth noting that the pattern could have been a flat A-B-C pattern as well, I saw it as a triangle.
So…the 2013 pivot points on the weekly scale from my Swing Trading Forecast model.
The week of:
May 13th is a wild card
At this point February 19th is lining up for a top unless things fall apart and the market breaks down on that day or we have heaven on earth and the market breaks out of the 5 wave wedge / ending diagonal.
I wan’t to end on this note…with this market forecast leading into 2014…even though I’m taking it easy on the long positions, one thing to keep in mind is the fact that Dan Zanger made all of his money in the 18 months prior to the 2000 top in the dot com mania peak. There’s always money to be made, anywhere and all the time…